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The nation's largest agricultural state by value, with major cotton, corn, grain sorghum, and winter wheat production.
Winter wheat in Texas is planted in September–October and harvested June–July. Spring wheat states plant April–May and harvest August–September. The USDA Wheat Outlook is released monthly in the WASDE report.
Understanding Texas Wheat Basis
Gulf Coast Texas basis on corn can be positive during strong export demand. Panhandle Texas runs 15–35¢ negative, reflecting inland freight costs.
When and how to use basis in your marketing plan: Wheat has a longer marketing window than corn or soybeans due to its storage characteristics. New-crop forward sales (January–March HTA contracts) often capture seasonal premium before the June harvest pressure.
What Drives Texas Wheat Prices
- CBOT ZW Futures: The national price benchmark. Local cash prices = futures + basis. Watch nearby and deferred futures spreads (carry structure) to determine whether the market is rewarding or penalizing storage.
- USDA FAS Export Sales: Released every Thursday at 8:30am ET. Strong export commitments — especially to China — typically move futures and local bids within 24 hours.
- CFTC COT Positioning: Large speculative funds (managed money) net position in ZW futures is a 2–4 week leading indicator of price direction. Extreme net-short positions often precede short-covering rallies.
- USDA WASDE Report: Monthly supply/demand revision. Carryout-to-use ratio changes of more than 5% typically move prices $0.10–$0.30/bu within minutes of the noon ET release.
- Weather: Drought stress (NOAA Drought Monitor D2+) during critical growth stages is historically the largest single-day market mover. Texas producers should track Corn Belt drought coverage weekly May–August.