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The nation's largest agricultural state by value, with major cotton, corn, grain sorghum, and winter wheat production.
Soybeans are planted in Texas from mid-May through mid-June. Unlike corn, soybeans are most weather-sensitive during pod-fill in late July and August. China export demand is the dominant fundamental driver of soybean prices.
Understanding Texas Soybeans Basis
Gulf Coast Texas basis on corn can be positive during strong export demand. Panhandle Texas runs 15–35¢ negative, reflecting inland freight costs.
When and how to use basis in your marketing plan: Texas soybean producers should watch the USDA FAS weekly export sales report (released every Thursday at 8:30am ET) for real-time signals on Chinese buying activity, which directly impacts local elevator bids within 24–48 hours.
What Drives Texas Soybeans Prices
- CBOT ZS Futures: The national price benchmark. Local cash prices = futures + basis. Watch nearby and deferred futures spreads (carry structure) to determine whether the market is rewarding or penalizing storage.
- USDA FAS Export Sales: Released every Thursday at 8:30am ET. Strong export commitments — especially to China — typically move futures and local bids within 24 hours.
- CFTC COT Positioning: Large speculative funds (managed money) net position in ZS futures is a 2–4 week leading indicator of price direction. Extreme net-short positions often precede short-covering rallies.
- USDA WASDE Report: Monthly supply/demand revision. Carryout-to-use ratio changes of more than 5% typically move prices $0.10–$0.30/bu within minutes of the noon ET release.
- Weather: Drought stress (NOAA Drought Monitor D2+) during critical growth stages is historically the largest single-day market mover. Texas producers should track Corn Belt drought coverage weekly May–August.