What Is the CFTC COT Report?
The Commitment of Traders (COT) report is published every Friday by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It shows the net futures positions of three trader categories: commercial hedgers (grain companies and processors), non-commercial speculators (hedge funds and managed money), and small traders.
For grain price forecasting, managed-money net positioning is the most actionable signal. When large speculative funds are heavily net-long corn, soybeans, or wheat, prices are vulnerable to a sell-off if fundamentals disappoint. When funds are net-short, prices can spike rapidly if export demand or weather news surprises to the upside.
How to Read the COT Data
Net long >100,000 contracts — Large speculative funds are heavily positioned for higher prices. Price is already supported, but watch for exhaustion at extreme levels. Position changes matter more than absolute level.
Net position between -30,000 and +30,000 contracts — Funds are balanced. Price will be driven by fundamental news (weather, exports, WASDE) rather than speculative flows.
Net short >100,000 contracts — Speculators expect lower prices. Large net-short positions can create rapid short-covering rallies if positive news surprises the market, but sustained downside is more likely while funds remain positioned short.
The Week-Over-Week Change Is the Real Signal
Absolute net position matters less than the rate of change. A swing of 20,000 contracts or more in a single week indicates that large funds are aggressively repositioning — a signal that often precedes a price move of $0.15–$0.40/bushel within 2–3 weeks.
GrainBrief calculates week-over-week position changes automatically and flags aggressive repositioning as a Price Alert for subscribers.
COT Data Source and Release Schedule
The COT data used by GrainBrief comes directly from the CFTC Public Reporting Portal (Socrata open data API — free, no subscription required). We pull the Disaggregated COT report, which provides more granular breakdown of managed-money positions than the legacy COT format.
Release schedule: CFTC publishes new COT data every Friday by 3:30pm Eastern Time. The data represents futures positions as of the previous Tuesday's close. GrainBrief processes and publishes the update by 4:00pm ET every Friday.
CBOT Grain Futures Tracked
| Commodity | CBOT Ticker | Contract Size | Key Signal Level |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | ZC | 5,000 bushels | ±100,000 contracts net = major signal |
| Soybeans | ZS | 5,000 bushels | ±80,000 contracts net = major signal |
| SRW Wheat | ZW | 5,000 bushels | ±50,000 contracts net = major signal |
| HRW Wheat (KC) | KE | 5,000 bushels | ±40,000 contracts net = major signal |
| HRS Wheat (MGEX) | MWE | 5,000 bushels | ±20,000 contracts net = major signal |
| Oats | ZO | 5,000 bushels | ±10,000 contracts net = major signal |
| Soybean Meal | ZM | 100 short tons | ±75,000 contracts net = major signal |
Related Market Signals
- USDA FAS Weekly Export Sales — Thursday 8:30am ET. The #1 fundamental driver of short-term soybean price moves.
- Corn-Ethanol Crush Margin — Live crush margin tells you whether ethanol plants are actively competing for corn.
- WASDE Supply/Demand Report — Monthly USDA outlook. The single most market-moving government report in agriculture.
- NOAA Drought Monitor — Weekly crop stress map. High D2+ drought coverage in the Corn Belt = bullish price signal.
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