What Is the USDA FAS Export Sales Report?
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) publishes weekly export sales data every Thursday at 8:30am Eastern Time through the Export Sales Reporting (ESR) program. All U.S. exporters who sell more than specific quantity thresholds to foreign buyers must report those sales to USDA within 24 hours.
The report shows gross new sales (commitments made during the week), outstanding sales (committed but not yet shipped), and accumulated exports (physically shipped). For grain price analysis, gross new sales to China for corn and soybeans is the single most watched line item in the weekly report.
How Export Sales Move Grain Prices
Large flash sale to China or above-trade-estimate weekly sales — Corn futures can rally $0.10–$0.25/bu within the first hour of trading following a large China corn purchase announcement (USDA flash sale) or a significant beat vs. analyst estimates on Thursday morning.
Export sales running 10%+ behind the pace needed to hit USDA's annual target — If cumulative corn or soybean export shipments are running materially behind USDA's marketing year export target, it signals that either world demand is soft or U.S. prices are losing ground to South American competition.
Marketing Year and the USDA Export Target
USDA sets an annual export target in the monthly WASDE report. Each week, GrainBrief calculates whether cumulative shipments are ahead of or behind the pace needed to hit that target:
| Commodity | MKT Year Start | 2025/26 USDA Target | Export Pace Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | September 1 | 2.375 billion bushels | <95% pace = bearish |
| Soybeans | September 1 | 1.875 billion bushels | <95% pace = bearish |
| Wheat | June 1 | 825 million bushels | <90% pace = bearish |
| Grain Sorghum | September 1 | 130 million bushels | <90% pace = bearish |
Data Source: USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting
GrainBrief pulls export sales data directly from the USDA FAS Export Sales Reporting database every Thursday morning at 8:45am ET (after the 8:30am release). The data is free and publicly available — no subscription required. We calculate the pace vs. target percentage and generate a plain-English assessment for each commodity.
Related Market Signals
- USDA FGIS Export Grain Inspections — Physical grain loaded onto ships. Confirms (or contradicts) the sales commitment data.
- CFTC COT Managed Money Positioning — Speculative positioning tells you whether the market is already pricing in the export demand signal.
- WASDE Report — Monthly USDA revision to export targets and supply/demand balance.
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