What Is the WASDE Report?
The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is published monthly by the USDA's World Agricultural Outlook Board (WAOB). It is the most comprehensive and market-moving government data release in U.S. agriculture, providing official USDA projections for supply, use, trade, and ending stocks for major grains, oilseeds, cotton, and sugar — for the U.S. and key producing/consuming countries worldwide.
Key Numbers That Move Markets
| Metric | Commodity | Why It Matters | Typical Market Move on Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. Ending Stocks (Carryout) | Corn | Lower carryout = tighter supply = higher prices | $0.10–$0.30/bu per 50M bu surprise |
| U.S. Ending Stocks | Soybeans | Soy stocks are the most volatile because they depend on China demand | $0.20–$0.60/bu per 25M bu surprise |
| World Ending Stocks | Wheat | Global wheat stocks set the floor for U.S. wheat prices via export competition | $0.10–$0.25/bu per 5MT surprise |
| U.S. Corn Production | Corn | August estimate is most watched — confirms or denies crop tour estimates | $0.15–$0.40/bu if production differs from trade estimates |
| Brazil/Argentina Soy Production | Soybeans | South America competes directly with U.S. soy exports to China | $0.15–$0.50/bu on large revisions |
How GrainBrief Uses WASDE Data
GrainBrief pulls WASDE data from the USDA FAS PSD (Production, Supply, and Distribution) Open Data API, which provides the same supply/demand data as the WASDE in machine-readable JSON format — free, no subscription required.
After each WASDE release, GrainBrief automatically updates the carryout-to-use ratios displayed on state grain price pages and adjusts the directional signal (bullish/bearish/neutral) for each commodity.
WASDE Release Calendar
WASDE releases on the second Tuesday of every month at 12:00pm Eastern Time (noon ET). GrainBrief pulls the updated data by 12:30pm ET on release day. Sign up for price alerts to receive the GrainBrief WASDE summary within one hour of release.
The Stock-to-Use Ratio: The Master Metric
The single most important number in the WASDE for grain pricing is the stock-to-use ratio: ending stocks divided by total usage, expressed as a percentage. Lower ratios indicate tighter supplies and support higher prices.
| Corn Stocks/Use | Historical Price Environment |
|---|---|
| < 8% | Extreme tightness — historically associated with $6.00–$8.00+/bu corn |
| 8%–12% | Tight — $4.50–$6.50/bu corn range typical |
| 12%–17% | Normal — $3.80–$5.00/bu range |
| > 17% | Burdensome — $3.00–$4.20/bu price environment |
Get Automated Market Signal Alerts
GrainBrief delivers a weekly synthesis of all market signals — COT positioning, export sales pace, crush margin, drought index, and WASDE revision — in a single plain-English outlook for your region. Free trial, no credit card required.
Start Free Trial →