Daily feedlot profitability signal — the margin a cattle feeder makes buying a 750 lb feeder steer and selling it as a 1,350 lb fed animal.
Inputs in the sample above are illustrative. Subscribe to GrainBrief Pro for live USDA-sourced inputs updated daily.
| CFM Range | Signal | What It Means |
|---|---|---|
| +$300 or more | Strong Buy | Wide feedlot margins — aggressive placement likely, feeder demand building |
| +$150 to +$299 | Profitable | Margins support normal placement pace — no urgency either direction |
| $0 to +$149 | Marginal | Breakeven-to-narrow — feedlots may slow placements, feeder bids soften |
| −$1 to −$199 | Stress | Feedlots losing money — placement slowdown likely, feeder prices under pressure |
| −$200 or worse | Severe Loss | Deep negative margins — liquidation risk, fed cattle prices must recover or feeder prices collapse |
Feedlots consume roughly 60 bushels of corn per animal finished. When CFM goes deeply negative, feedlots slow placements — which means corn demand from livestock drops 3–6 months later. Grain farmers can anticipate demand weakness before it shows up in cash bids.
States with concentrated feedlot capacity (Iowa, Nebraska, Kansas, Texas) see corn basis tighten when CFM is strong — feedlots are buying. Negative CFM often widens corn basis in those states as purchase pace slows.
Cow-calf operations watch CFM to gauge what feedlots will pay for feeder calves at weaning. A CFM at −$100/head doesn't mean feedlots stop buying — it means they squeeze feeder prices down until the margin clears. Know this before you sell weaned calves.
GrainBrief Pro pulls USDA AMS livestock reports daily and recomputes CFM, HFM, and all grain crush margins before 6:30 AM CT. Price alerts fire when margins cross key thresholds.
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