Urea prices are running $420–$520 per ton in the U.S. Corn Belt in spring 2026, up 15–25% year-over-year. China export restrictions on nitrogen cut global supply, and elevated natural gas costs keep production floors high. USDA AMS weekly survey data confirms prices remain above 5-year averages.
Current Signal: HOLD
Year-over-year change: +15–25%
| Market / Region | Price Range |
|---|---|
| NOLA Barge (bulk) | $410 – $480/ton |
| Corn Belt Retail (dry) | $450 – $520/ton |
| Pacific Northwest | $430 – $500/ton |
| Delta Region | $420 – $490/ton |
China restricted urea exports through August 2026 to protect domestic supplies. China accounts for roughly 20% of global urea trade. Removing that volume tightened the Atlantic market and pushed U.S. import prices higher.
Urea is synthesized from ammonia via the Haber-Bosch process. Natural gas represents 70–80% of production cost. European gas prices in 2025–2026 remain elevated, keeping the global marginal cost of urea production high.
Spring pre-plant and sidedress demand peaks in April–May, creating a seasonal price bulge that typically softens by mid-June. Buyers who missed the pre-purchase window in February–March are now absorbing the full seasonal premium.
A stronger U.S. dollar makes imported urea more expensive in dollar terms. 2026 dollar index trends have modestly amplified import costs relative to domestic production.
Urea is trading at $420–$520 per ton in U.S. Corn Belt markets in spring 2026, based on USDA AMS retail survey data. NOLA barge prices, which lead retail by 2–4 weeks, are in the $410–$480 range.
China export restrictions on nitrogen and elevated natural gas costs are the two primary drivers. China supplies ~20% of global urea trade, and gas accounts for 70–80% of production cost.
Historically, the lowest urea prices occur in late July through September, after spring demand fades and before fall pre-purchases begin. Pre-purchasing for fall application in June–July often captures a $30–$60/ton discount versus spring spot.
On a cost-per-unit-of-nitrogen basis, urea (46% N) typically runs $0.90–$1.15/lb N versus anhydrous ammonia (82% N) at $0.55–$0.70/lb N. Anhydrous is cheaper per unit of N but requires injection equipment.
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