Urea is trading at $420–$520 per ton in the U.S. Corn Belt as of spring 2026, up 15–25% year over year. China export restrictions on nitrogen through August 2026 and high natural gas costs are the primary drivers.
| Product | Price | vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Urea NOLA barge | $390–$470/ton | +18% |
| Urea Corn Belt retail | $420–$520/ton | +22% |
| Urea Great Plains | $430–$530/ton | +20% |
Pre-buy fall 2026 nitrogen before August. If China restrictions lift, spot may soften Q4 but the floor is set by natural gas.
China restricted nitrogen exports through August 2026, removing significant global supply and pushing prices 15–25% above year-ago levels.
Urea is produced via the Haber-Bosch process; natural gas represents 70–80% of production cost. European gas prices remain elevated.
U.S. plants are running near full capacity but cannot replace all Chinese export volumes.
Dollar strength and ocean freight rates affect import competitiveness from the Middle East.
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