Anhydrous ammonia is $900–$1,100/ton and UAN 32% is $0.28–$0.36/gallon in spring 2026, up 15–35% YoY. Natural gas costs and China nitrogen export restrictions are the key drivers.
| Product | Price | vs. 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Anhydrous ammonia | $900–$1,100/ton | +30% |
| UAN 32% | $0.28–$0.36/gal | +15% |
| Urea (dry, for comparison) | $420–$520/ton | +20% |
Do not buy spot nitrogen in-season if avoidable. Pre-book fall anhydrous before August when the China restriction decision will move the market.
Natural gas is 70–80% of nitrogen production cost. Elevated global gas prices set a high floor.
China restricted nitrogen exports through August 2026, tightening global supply.
U.S. plants run near full capacity but cannot replace all import volumes.
Anhydrous requires specialized handling; storage costs add to delivered price.
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