Most market analysts expect modest fertilizer price relief in Q4 2026 — specifically October–December — if China's phosphate and nitrogen export restrictions expire in August as currently planned. However, elevated natural gas costs set a structural floor for nitrogen prices that prevents a return to 2021 lows. Do not count on a major price collapse; plan for 10–20% softening in the most China-exposed products.
| Product | Current (Spring 2026) | Q4 2026 Forecast | Key variable |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anhydrous ammonia | $900–$1,100/ton | $820–$980/ton | Natural gas prices |
| Urea | $420–$520/ton | $380–$470/ton | China restriction status |
| DAP/MAP | $620–$740/ton | $540–$660/ton | China restriction expiry |
| Potash | $310–$380/ton | $295–$365/ton | Brazil demand cycle |
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