Fall fertilizer prices are typically 8–18% below equivalent spring prices because logistics demand is lower and co-ops need to move inventory. Fall anhydrous ammonia is almost always the cheapest nitrogen option — applied when soil temperature drops below 50°F to prevent nitrification. The risk: fall nitrogen loss in wet winters requires a nitrification inhibitor ($10–$15/acre) to protect the investment.
| Product | Fall typical discount | Fall risk | Inhibitor needed? |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anhydrous ammonia | 10–18% below spring | Nitrification loss in wet winter | Yes — Instinct or N-Serve |
| DAP / MAP | 5–10% below spring | Minimal P loss risk | No |
| Potash | 3–7% below spring | Very low K loss risk | No |
| Urea | 8–14% below spring | Volatilization on wet/warm soil | Agrotain if broadcast |
GrainBrief tracks USDA AMS, FRED, and EIA data every week and sends you a buy, hold, or negotiate signal for each input. No manual spreadsheet. No lag.
Start Free Trial →